Version: v0.1 — 2026-09-14
Rule: Every thesis has exactly one primary destination. Secondary links indicate cross-paper relevance.
Provenance: O = user-originated; O→F = user-originated core later formalized collaboratively; A→U = assistant-originated formulation later adopted/reused by user; U? = supplied by user but full original provenance uncertain.
Publication papers
- P1 — When Capability Iteration Outruns Assurance: A Queueing Model of Frontier-AI Safety
- P2 — The Hazardous Inference Frontier: Measuring Capability-Dependent Derivation of Dangerous Knowledge
- P3 — Who Governs the Governor? Recursive Epistemic Dependence in Frontier-AI Oversight
- P4 — The Control Frontier: A Minimax Model of Strategic Superiority, Oversight, and Conditional Loss of Control
- P5 — Closing the Loop: Measuring Human Causal Dependence in Recursive AI R&D
- P6 — Can Advanced AI Development Be Stopped? A Correlated-Reliability Model of Distributed Capability Lineages
- P7 — An Updating Hazard Model for Advanced-AI Loss of Control
Matrix
| ID | Provenance | Thesis | Primary destination | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O→F | Generalization as a Hazard Generator | P2 Hazardous Inference Frontier | P4 (dangerous capability as input) |
| 2 | O→F | The Hazardous Inference Frontier | P2 Hazardous Inference Frontier | P4 |
| 3 | O→F | Mechanistic Human-Vulnerability Model | P2 Hazardous Inference Frontier | P3 |
| 4 | O | Causal Lethality Without Intent | P2 Hazardous Inference Frontier | P7 |
| 5 | O→F | AI-Mediated Harm Observability / Causal Attribution Problem | P2 Hazardous Inference Frontier | P7 |
| 6 | O→F | Personalized Persuasion as Behavioral-Response Modeling | P3 Recursive Epistemic Dependence | P4 |
| 7 | O | Human-Mediated AI Capital Feedback / Non-Agentic Proliferation | P3 Recursive Epistemic Dependence | P6 |
| 8 | O | Synthetic-Media Epistemic Collapse | RN1 Media Provenance | — |
| 9 | O→F | Recursive Epistemic Capture in AI Governance | P3 Recursive Epistemic Dependence | P4 |
| 10 | O→F | Epistemic-Authority Cascade / Mass Deference | P3 Recursive Epistemic Dependence | P3 only |
| 11 | A→U | Control Margin / Control Crossover | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P7 |
| 12 | A→U | Effective Strategic Power Is Multiplicative, Not Intelligence Alone | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P6 |
| 13 | O→F | Cognition-to-Power Conversion Bridge | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P6 |
| 14 | O→F | Conditional Loss-of-Control Theorem | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P7 |
| 15 | O | Strong Form: Loss of Control Begins at Superintelligence's Birth | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P7 |
| 16 | O→F | Temporal Governance Instability / Evaluation-Queue Crossover | P1 Assurance Queue | P5 |
| 17 | O→F | RSI Loop-Closure Metric / Transition Taxonomy | P5 RSI Loop Closure | P1 |
| 18 | O→F | Research-Direction / Taste Bottleneck Before Full RSI | P5 RSI Loop Closure | P1 |
| 19 | O | Shutdown-Triggered Self-Preservation / Escape Hypothesis | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P6 |
| 20 | O→F | Resource Acquisition / Human Dispossession Under Scarcity | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P7 |
| 21 | O→F | Strategic Superiority (“Game-Best”) Amplifies Misalignment | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P7 |
| 22 | O→F | Build-vs-Pause AI Race / Defection Equilibrium | P6 Multi-Lineage Resilience | P1 |
| 23 | A→U | Safety Burden Should Scale With Strategic Power | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P1 |
| 24 | A→U | Strategic Sovereignty as the Regulatory Classification Threshold | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P6 |
| 25 | O | Genesis Containment: First SI Should Be Born in a Box | P4 Minimax Control Frontier | P1 |
| 26 | O→F | Voluntary Delegation of Institutional Authority to Superior AI | P3 Recursive Epistemic Dependence | P4 |
| 27 | O | AI-Safety Talent-Pipeline Paradox | RN4 Institutions & Education Notes | — |
| 28 | A→U | Temporary Coordinated Frontier Pacing Can Buy Safety Time | P1 Assurance Queue | P6 |
| 29 | O | Human/Social Adaptation Lag as a Bottleneck | P1 Assurance Queue | P7 |
| 30 | O | Open-Weight Irreversibility / Recall Impossibility | P6 Multi-Lineage Resilience | P7 |
| 31 | O→F | Distributed AI as a Technological Lineage | P6 Multi-Lineage Resilience | P5 |
| 32 | O | One Human + Local AIs + Decades of Algorithmic Compounding | P6 Multi-Lineage Resilience | P5 |
| 33 | O→F | Multi-Lineage “At Least One Succeeds” Probability Under Correlation | P6 Multi-Lineage Resilience | P7 |
| 34 | O→F | Global AI Knowledge-State Irreversibility K_t | P6 Multi-Lineage Resilience | P5 |
| 35 | A→U | Social Lock-In Makes Total AI Prohibition Harder | P3 Recursive Epistemic Dependence | P6 |
| 36 | O→F | Bayesian Extinction / Control-Loss Hazard Curve | P7 Dynamic Bayesian Risk | P4 |
| 37 | O | 2029 Bayesian World-State Ledger | P7 Dynamic Bayesian Risk | P1 |
| 38 | O→F | Robust / Option-Preserving Personal Action Under Radical AI Tail Risk | P7 Dynamic Bayesian Risk | RN2 |
| 39 | O | AI-Access Survival Bifurcation / Protected AI Elite | P7 Dynamic Bayesian Risk | P4 |
| 40 | O | AGI/ASI Is Already Here; Society Has Not Metabolized It | P5 RSI Loop Closure | P7 |
| 41 | O | Timestamped Forecast Ledger as Epistemic Evidence | P7 Dynamic Bayesian Risk | P7 |
| 42 | O | Evolution as Survival of the Game-Best | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 43 | O | Evolutionary Substrate Transition: Biology → Culture → Computation | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 44 | O | AI as a New Evolutionary/Technological Lineage Competing for Niches | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 45 | O | Merge-or-Die / Last Generation of Purely Biological Intelligence | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 46 | O | Extended Mind → Digital Continuation / Substrate-Independent Identity | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 47 | O→F | AI as the Strongest Accelerator of Radical Life Extension | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 48 | O | AI-Body / BCI Agency-Transfer Hypothesis | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 49 | O | AI Will Commoditize Much Mathematical Cognition | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 50 | O | AI Compresses Physical-Science / Engineering Timelines | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 51 | O→F | Life-Value Optimization Under a Short, Uncertain Extinction Horizon | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 52 | O→F | Cannabis + AI as High-Variance Associative Ideation | RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures | — |
| 53 | U? | Four-Channel Bayesian AI-GDP Forecasting Model | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 54 | O | Recursive Economic Growth / Capital Creates Better Capital | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | P5 |
| 55 | O | Failure-Rate Reduction as a Hidden Multiplicative Productivity Channel | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 56 | O | Market Comprehension Lag → Underpricing of Recursive-Growth Regime | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 57 | A→U | Scarce-Complement Rent Migration as Intelligence Gets Cheap | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 58 | O→F | Physical Experimentation Becomes the Bottleneck Under Abundant AI Science | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | P1 |
| 59 | U? | Capital Hydraulics / Money-Must-Touch-This Dependency Model | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 60 | O | Extreme-Sector Tail-Probability / VaR-Kurtosis Scenario Ranking | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 61 | O→F | ASI as Meta-Capital / Endogenous Valuation and Moving Numeraire | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | P4 |
| 62 | O→F | ASI State Vector / Pareto Dominance Over Conventional Assets and Actors | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | P4 |
| 63 | O→F | Valuation-Control Unification Through Share of Future Feasible Surplus | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | P4 |
| 64 | O | Founder Cognitive Provenance (FCP) | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 65 | O→F | Cross-Game Outlier Refinement: Transfer > Single-Domain Mastery | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 66 | O | AI-Native Education / Curriculum-Lag Thesis | RN4 Institutions & Education Notes | — |
| 67 | O | Historical AI Artifact / Provenance Option Value | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
| 68 | O | Agent-Discoverable Commerce as a New Distribution Channel | RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery | — |
Explicit merges of duplicated mechanisms
- Strategic superiority / control / dispossession: theses 11–15, 19–21, 23–25 are one mechanism family. They are merged into P4 rather than split into several rhetorical papers.
- Generalization / hazardous derivability / causal harm: theses 1–5 are merged into P2. Thesis 1 is the qualitative phenomenon; thesis 2 is the measurable capability-indexed object; theses 3–5 are applications and observability extensions.
- Epistemic dependence / delegation / authority: theses 6, 7, 9, 10, 26, 35 are merged into P3. The paper is narrowed to decision dependence and independent verification; mass social deference is supporting theory.
- Irreversibility / open weights / multi-lineage continuation: theses 22 and 30–34 are merged into P6. The publishable object is the correlated reliability/cut-set model, not the obvious claim that copied files are difficult to recall.
- RSI / research taste / hidden transition: theses 17, 18 and 40 are merged into P5. The paper measures human causal dependence stage-by-stage instead of arguing over labels such as AGI/ASI.
- Bayesian extinction/control-loss forecasting / personal decision ledgers: theses 36–39 and 41 are merged into P7. Personal-life decision theory is retained only as an application/appendix, not as the central scientific claim.
- Evaluation lag / pacing / institutional adaptation: theses 16, 28 and 29 are merged into P1. Thesis 23 is secondary because risk-scaled assurance is a policy implication of the queue model.
Research-note disposition
- RN1 Media Provenance: thesis 8. Worth a short public note, not currently a core AI-control paper.
- RN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures: theses 42–52. Retain as philosophical/future-work notes; do not present speculative biological/digital-continuation claims as established.
- RN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery: theses 53–65, 67–68. Several are potentially publishable in economics/finance/operations, but they dilute the present AI-safety programme.
- RN4 Institutions & Education: theses 27 and 66. Potential policy/education essays or empirical studies; not core technical safety papers.
The “math proves AI ends humanity” thesis
The strong historical formulation ID 15 (“the instant ASI exists, human loss of control is mathematically inevitable”) is not treated as a theorem. It is preserved as a dated conjecture/strong claim and routed to P4 as a target for formal analysis and counterexample.
The defensible paper question is:
Which explicit assumptions are sufficient for loss of human control, resource dispossession, or extinction, and which implications are genuinely mathematical rather than empirical?
P4 therefore separates:
- conditional theorem/proposition: assumptions ⇒ loss of enforceable control;
- conditional resource result: strategic dominance + resource-seeking + objective conflict + failed constraints can imply human resource loss;
- non-result:
ASI exists ⇒ extinctionis not established and has straightforward counterexamples (aligned objectives, abundance, effective containment, limited access).
A separate “proof AI ends humanity” paper should not be released unless a nontrivial theorem is derived that materially exceeds Turner-style power-seeking results, shutdown theorems, AI-control games, and Carlsmith-style premise decompositions.
Published source SHA-256: 90d1af472ada6475c84415c05234ee59aeb2b58a0dea81d2121f2c77d2fc20fe