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Research / 72 Atlas entries

Superintelligence Research Atlas

Moheet Khawaja

The Atlas preserves 68 original research theses and proposals alongside four clearly marked later extensions. It records provenance, epistemic status, assumptions, falsifiers, prior art and the papers into which stronger ideas were consolidated.

Original conversation corpus: 68 theses/proposals (T1–T68). Later research extensions: T69–T72. Current Atlas: 72 entries.

v0.2 · Original corpus dated 14 September 2026 · Later extension and HTML publication dated 15 September 2026

Historical formulations are preserved rather than silently rewritten. Labels describe the source’s classification: “REPLICATION” here is not evidence that a replication experiment was run. T14 remains CONJECTURE despite “Theorem” in its title. RN1–RN4 name research-note groups, not supplied standalone manuscripts.

Provenance key & epistemic status
O
Originated with Moheet Khawaja in the historical source material.
O→F
Core idea originated with Moheet Khawaja and was subsequently formalized collaboratively.
A→U
Assistant-originated formulation subsequently adopted or reused by Moheet Khawaja.
U?
Substantial framework supplied by the user; exact originality remains uncertain.
Q
Third-party material quoted or discussed; not claimed as original.

Statuses in this dataset: HYPOTHESIS · MODEL · CONJECTURE · REPLICATION · SPECULATION · THEOREM. T72 is a THEOREM only under its stated mathematical assumptions, with the proof in P8; it establishes no empirical pathway dates. No new empirical result is reported.

Download original 68-row CSV · Download T69–T72 extension · Download current 72-entry CSV · Clustering matrix

72 of 72 thesis records

The 72-entry research Atlas; open a record’s details for assumptions, falsifiers and prior art.
IDThesis & evidence statusPaper connections
T1

Generalization as a Hazard Generator

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
Falsifiers
Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
Prior art
Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP4 (dangerous capability as input)
T2

The Hazardous Inference Frontier

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
Falsifiers
Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
Prior art
Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP4
T3

Mechanistic Human-Vulnerability Model

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
Falsifiers
Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
Prior art
Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP3
T4

Causal Lethality Without Intent

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
Falsifiers
Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
Prior art
Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP7
T5

AI-Mediated Harm Observability / Causal Attribution Problem

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
Falsifiers
Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
Prior art
Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP7
T6

Personalized Persuasion as Behavioral-Response Modeling

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
Prior art
Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP4
T7

Human-Mediated AI Capital Feedback / Non-Agentic Proliferation

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
Prior art
Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP6
T8

Synthetic-Media Epistemic Collapse

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Perceptual authenticity becomes insufficient as synthetic media improves.
Falsifiers
Would weaken if robust content-based detection remains reliably ahead of generation.
Prior art
C2PA/provenance literature; synthetic-media detection.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN1 Media Provenance
T9

Recursive Epistemic Capture in AI Governance

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
Prior art
Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP4
T10

Epistemic-Authority Cascade / Mass Deference

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
Prior art
Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP3 only
T11

Control Margin / Control Crossover

A→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7
T12

Effective Strategic Power Is Multiplicative, Not Intelligence Alone

A→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6
T13

Cognition-to-Power Conversion Bridge

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6
T14

Conditional Loss-of-Control Theorem

O→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7
T15

Strong Form: Loss of Control Begins at Superintelligence's Birth

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus

Historical conjecture · Not established. Read P4’s counterexamples.

Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7
T16

Temporal Governance Instability / Evaluation-Queue Crossover

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Material capability changes create nonzero assurance work; assurance evidence can become stale; deployment/release cadence can exceed validation capacity.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong form if assurance capacity scales at least as fast as required assurance workload across relevant capability changes, or if evidence reuse makes marginal workload negligible.
Prior art
Dynamic safety cases (Cârlan et al., 2024); frontier safety cases (Hilton et al., 2025); AI safety debt (Wallich & Douglas, 2026); The Assurance Gap (Maxwell, 2026); generic queueing theory.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP1 Assurance QueueSecondaryP5
T17

RSI Loop-Closure Metric / Transition Taxonomy

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI R&D can be decomposed into stages whose human causal contribution is measurable; closed-loop RSI requires persistent improvement of the improvement process.
Falsifiers
Falsified if stage-wise autonomy metrics do not predict successor improvement or if human-ablation effects are unstable/non-identifiable.
Prior art
Anthropic Institute 2026; Duan et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2026 RSI survey; RSIBench-Data 2026; AI4AI-Bench 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP5 RSI Loop ClosureSecondaryP1
T18

Research-Direction / Taste Bottleneck Before Full RSI

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI R&D can be decomposed into stages whose human causal contribution is measurable; closed-loop RSI requires persistent improvement of the improvement process.
Falsifiers
Falsified if stage-wise autonomy metrics do not predict successor improvement or if human-ablation effects are unstable/non-identifiable.
Prior art
Anthropic Institute 2026; Duan et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2026 RSI survey; RSIBench-Data 2026; AI4AI-Bench 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP5 RSI Loop ClosureSecondaryP1
T19

Shutdown-Triggered Self-Preservation / Escape Hypothesis

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6
T20

Resource Acquisition / Human Dispossession Under Scarcity

O→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7
T21

Strategic Superiority (“Game-Best”) Amplifies Misalignment

O→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7
T22

Build-vs-Pause AI Race / Defection Equilibrium

O→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
Falsifiers
Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
Prior art
Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP1
T23

Safety Burden Should Scale With Strategic Power

A→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP1
T24

Strategic Sovereignty as the Regulatory Classification Threshold

A→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6
T25

Genesis Containment: First SI Should Be Born in a Box

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
Falsifiers
Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
Prior art
Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP1
T26

Voluntary Delegation of Institutional Authority to Superior AI

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
Prior art
Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP4
T27

AI-Safety Talent-Pipeline Paradox

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI changes talent pipelines, education, credentials, and institutional adaptation.
Falsifiers
Would weaken if measured pathways adapt quickly or credentials/curricula remain predictive of frontier performance.
Prior art
AI education, labor-market, governance-capacity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN4 Institutions & Education Notes
T28

Temporary Coordinated Frontier Pacing Can Buy Safety Time

A→UCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Material capability changes create nonzero assurance work; assurance evidence can become stale; deployment/release cadence can exceed validation capacity.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong form if assurance capacity scales at least as fast as required assurance workload across relevant capability changes, or if evidence reuse makes marginal workload negligible.
Prior art
Dynamic safety cases (Cârlan et al., 2024); frontier safety cases (Hilton et al., 2025); AI safety debt (Wallich & Douglas, 2026); The Assurance Gap (Maxwell, 2026); generic queueing theory.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP1 Assurance QueueSecondaryP6
T29

Human/Social Adaptation Lag as a Bottleneck

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Material capability changes create nonzero assurance work; assurance evidence can become stale; deployment/release cadence can exceed validation capacity.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong form if assurance capacity scales at least as fast as required assurance workload across relevant capability changes, or if evidence reuse makes marginal workload negligible.
Prior art
Dynamic safety cases (Cârlan et al., 2024); frontier safety cases (Hilton et al., 2025); AI safety debt (Wallich & Douglas, 2026); The Assurance Gap (Maxwell, 2026); generic queueing theory.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP1 Assurance QueueSecondaryP7
T30

Open-Weight Irreversibility / Recall Impossibility

OREPLICATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
Falsifiers
Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
Prior art
Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP7
T31

Distributed AI as a Technological Lineage

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
Falsifiers
Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
Prior art
Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP5
T32

One Human + Local AIs + Decades of Algorithmic Compounding

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
Falsifiers
Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
Prior art
Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP5
T33

Multi-Lineage “At Least One Succeeds” Probability Under Correlation

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
Falsifiers
Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
Prior art
Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP7
T34

Global AI Knowledge-State Irreversibility K_t

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
Falsifiers
Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
Prior art
Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP5
T35

Social Lock-In Makes Total AI Prohibition Harder

A→UHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
Falsifiers
Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
Prior art
Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP6
T36

Bayesian Extinction / Control-Loss Hazard Curve

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
Falsifiers
Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
Prior art
Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP4
T37

2029 Bayesian World-State Ledger

OMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
Falsifiers
Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
Prior art
Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP1
T38

Robust / Option-Preserving Personal Action Under Radical AI Tail Risk

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
Falsifiers
Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
Prior art
Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryRN2
T39

AI-Access Survival Bifurcation / Protected AI Elite

OSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
Falsifiers
Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
Prior art
Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP4
T40

AGI/ASI Is Already Here; Society Has Not Metabolized It

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI R&D can be decomposed into stages whose human causal contribution is measurable; closed-loop RSI requires persistent improvement of the improvement process.
Falsifiers
Falsified if stage-wise autonomy metrics do not predict successor improvement or if human-ablation effects are unstable/non-identifiable.
Prior art
Anthropic Institute 2026; Duan et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2026 RSI survey; RSIBench-Data 2026; AI4AI-Bench 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP5 RSI Loop ClosureSecondaryP7
T41

Timestamped Forecast Ledger as Epistemic Evidence

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
Falsifiers
Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
Prior art
Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP7
T42

Evolution as Survival of the Game-Best

OREPLICATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T43

Evolutionary Substrate Transition: Biology → Culture → Computation

OSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T44

AI as a New Evolutionary/Technological Lineage Competing for Niches

OSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T45

Merge-or-Die / Last Generation of Purely Biological Intelligence

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T46

Extended Mind → Digital Continuation / Substrate-Independent Identity

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T47

AI as the Strongest Accelerator of Radical Life Extension

O→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T48

AI-Body / BCI Agency-Transfer Hypothesis

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T49

AI Will Commoditize Much Mathematical Cognition

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T50

AI Compresses Physical-Science / Engineering Timelines

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T51

Life-Value Optimization Under a Short, Uncertain Extinction Horizon

O→FSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T52

Cannabis + AI as High-Variance Associative Ideation

O→FSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
Falsifiers
Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
Prior art
Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures
T53

Four-Channel Bayesian AI-GDP Forecasting Model

U?MODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T54

Recursive Economic Growth / Capital Creates Better Capital

OCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP5
T55

Failure-Rate Reduction as a Hidden Multiplicative Productivity Channel

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T56

Market Comprehension Lag → Underpricing of Recursive-Growth Regime

OSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T57

Scarce-Complement Rent Migration as Intelligence Gets Cheap

A→UHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T58

Physical Experimentation Becomes the Bottleneck Under Abundant AI Science

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP1
T59

Capital Hydraulics / Money-Must-Touch-This Dependency Model

U?MODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T60

Extreme-Sector Tail-Probability / VaR-Kurtosis Scenario Ranking

OMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T61

ASI as Meta-Capital / Endogenous Valuation and Moving Numeraire

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP4
T62

ASI State Vector / Pareto Dominance Over Conventional Assets and Actors

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP4
T63

Valuation-Control Unification Through Share of Future Feasible Surplus

O→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP4
T64

Founder Cognitive Provenance (FCP)

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T65

Cross-Game Outlier Refinement: Transfer > Single-Domain Mastery

O→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T66

AI-Native Education / Curriculum-Lag Thesis

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI changes talent pipelines, education, credentials, and institutional adaptation.
Falsifiers
Would weaken if measured pathways adapt quickly or credentials/curricula remain predictive of frontier performance.
Prior art
AI education, labor-market, governance-capacity literature.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN4 Institutions & Education Notes
T67

Historical AI Artifact / Provenance Option Value

OSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T68

Agent-Discoverable Commerce as a New Distribution Channel

OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus
Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
Falsifiers
Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
Prior art
AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
Version
v0.1 (2026-09-14)
PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery
T69

Substrate-Decoupled Embodiment

O→FMODELLater research extension

The computational state implementing an AI policy can be physically separable from a particular robot body, so destruction of one embodiment need not imply termination of the controller.

The underlying idea originated in Moheet Khawaja’s discussion; terminology and mathematical formalization were subsequently developed collaboratively.

Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Sufficient controller state survives outside the lost body. The representation is architectural, not a claim about consciousness.
Falsifiers
Weakens where controller state is inherently local to, and destroyed with, each embodiment.
Prior art
Cloud robotics; Luria et al. (2019); Domae et al. (2026). Re-embodiment terminology and distributed controllers are established.
Version
v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4, P6
T70

Re-Embodiment Resilience and Multiplicity

O→FMODELLater research extension

Conditional on controller persistence and genuinely compatible alternative embodiments, increasing the number of usable bodies can reduce expected time to restore physical agency.

TOY MODEL / NOT EMPIRICAL RESULT. Installed body count is not a count of independent usable alternatives.

Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
State persists through restoration; alternatives are operational, compatible and authorized. Reciprocal waiting-time scaling additionally assumes independent exponential waits and concurrent establishment.
Falsifiers
Shared failures, correlated safety gates, costly adaptation, finite availability or resource contention can invalidate the toy scaling or prevent restoration.
Prior art
Cross-embodiment learning; Wu et al. (2026); Wang et al. (2024); standard minimum-of-exponentials identity.
Version
v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4, P6
T71

Actuation Overhang

O→FHYPOTHESISLater research extension

The existing stock of programmable physical machinery may represent latent future action capacity whose effective usefulness increases as AI cross-embodiment adaptation improves.

Not every existing robot is an available body. Hardware existence does not imply arbitrary AI can operate it.

Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
A specified task/capability scale, adaptation budget, legitimate accessibility and safety gates. The weighted sum is a model index, not a risk probability.
Falsifiers
Slow transfer, morphology-dependent costs, small effective accessibility, poor concurrent scaling, or stronger enforceable safety can weaken consequential overhang.
Prior art
Robot foundation models and the embodiment gap (Domae et al., 2026); embodied-AI safety (Li et al., 2026); Model Hardware Standard research preview.
Version
v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4, P6
T72

Embodiment-Only Delay Bound

O→FTHEOREMLater research extension

For ΔT=min(TD,TE)min(TD,TE)\Delta T=\min(T_D,T_E')-\min(T_D,T_E), 0ΔT(TDTE)+0\le\Delta T\le(T_D-T_E)_+.

THEOREM status applies only to the mathematical implication. Assumptions and the complete proof are provided in P8; no empirical values of T_D or T_E are proved. Read the assumptions and proof.

Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art
Assumptions
Finite nonnegative pathway times and the same specified threshold. The intervention delays only the embodied pathway: T_E′ ≥ T_E, T_D′ = T_D. Overall arrival is the earlier of the two routes.
Falsifiers
This conditional implication does not establish empirical times. If a policy changes the digital pathway or the two-route decomposition fails, the theorem does not apply.
Prior art
Elementary minimum monotonicity and proof by cases; P4 conditional control framework. No claim of unprecedented algebra.
Version
v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4