Release Order and Publication Readiness

Version: v0.2 — 15 September 2026 (original v0.1 retained below and in the version archive)
Author: Moheet Khawaja

Governing rule

A paper is released only at the strongest epistemic status its evidence supports. A theory proposal is labelled a theory proposal. A proposed experiment is not described as a result. A conditional theorem never establishes its uncertain empirical premises.

Recommended order

Order	Paper	Current status	What is missing before strongest credible release	Recommendation
1	P1 — When Capability Iteration Outruns Assurance	Near-ready theory/methods paper	Run and release at least one evidence-expiry/heterogeneous-workload simulation; finalize materiality coding protocol; one final priority search	First paper. Can be posted immediately as `working paper v0.1 / theory proposal`; for a stronger technical preprint, add simulations first.
2	P2 — The Hazardous Inference Frontier	Methods/benchmark proposal	Build safe synthetic benchmark; contamination controls; evaluate multiple model families; preregister capability × depth analysis	Do not claim an empirical discovery yet. Publish after benchmark + first results.
3	P3 — Who Governs the Governor?	Formal/experimental proposal	Ethics review as appropriate; synthetic safety cases; power analysis; expert or technically sophisticated participants; randomized experiment	Promising workshop/full paper after data. Avoid public accusations about named executives.
4	P5 — Closing the Loop	Crowded but potentially high-value empirical proposal	Multi-round AI-R&D task environment; stage-ablation orchestration; human expert baselines; comparison with HCI/PAST/RSIBench/AI4AI	Publish only with data. Conceptual version alone is too crowded in Sep 2026.
5	P6 — Correlated AI Lineages	Quantitative-model proposal	Build public dependency graph; define capability threshold/horizon; probability calibration; sensitivity to substitution; security review	Publish after quantitative graph/model exists. Qualitative “open weights are irreversible” is not enough.
6	P4 — The Control Frontier	Formal framework with elementary theorems	Empirical control-frontier slices or a nontrivial theorem beyond existing AI-Control work	Do not yet publish as a major technical paper. The current form is useful internally and as a section/technical note.
7	P7 — Updating Hazard Model / Risk Ledger	Preregistration protocol, not risk-estimate paper	Create public forecast ledger; preregister 20–50 intermediate forecasts over time; score against baselines	The protocol can be posted now, but do not publish a headline extinction probability until calibration evidence exists.

Materials ready immediately

These can be released now without pretending experiments have been run:

Superintelligence Research Atlas v0.1 — provenance/status mapping for all 68 theses.
Adversarial Novelty Audit v0.1 — nearest prior work and contribution boundaries.
P1 working paper v0.1 — only if clearly labelled theory/methods proposal; strongest version should wait for simulation.
P7 preregistration/methods protocol — only as a public commitment to an update/scoring process, not as evidence for a catastrophe probability.

Papers requiring simulations/data

P1: minimal simulation work.
P2: synthetic benchmark + model evaluations.
P3: randomized governance-advice experiment.
P5: multi-round AI-R&D causal ablations.
P6: dependency graph + probabilistic simulation.

Papers that should not yet be promoted as standalone research results

P4 — Control Frontier

The framework is coherent, but AI-control games, power-seeking theory, weak-to-strong supervision, and shutdown/control literature already occupy much of the territory. The elementary monotonicity results are not sufficient novelty. Preserve the paper and either:

generate empirical V(c,B)/B_min(c,δ) estimates; or
derive a substantially stronger theorem under nontrivial assumptions.

“A mathematical proof that AI will end humanity”

Do not publish this title/claim. The corpus contains the historical strong conjecture, but it fails logical audit because aligned objectives, containment, absent access, cooperation, and abundance are counterexamples. The publishable version is P4's conditional chain:

\text{specified strategic dominance/access/objective/resource premises} \Rightarrow \text{specified loss-of-control or dispossession conclusion}.

Mathematics proves the implication conditional on the premises; it does not prove that the premises will obtain.

Suggested release sequence on `superintel.site`

/research/atlas-v0-1
/research/novelty-audit-v0-1
/research/assurance-queue                 ← first paper
/research/hazardous-inference-frontier    ← after benchmark
/research/recursive-epistemic-dependence  ← after experiment
/research/closing-the-loop                ← after ablation study
/research/correlated-ai-lineages           ← after graph calibration
/research/control-frontier                 ← after empirical/theorem upgrade
/research/ai-risk-ledger                   ← protocol first; estimates later

Versioning rule

Every public version should preserve:

date;
Git commit/release hash;
thesis IDs used;
provenance labels;
changes in epistemic status;
new prior art found;
changed assumptions;
falsified predictions/results.

Never overwrite a historical claim so that it appears more qualified than it was at the time. Add a superseding version and link backward.

P8 — Later release-plan extension, 15 September 2026

The Embodiment Threshold: THEORY/MODEL WORKING PAPER — publishable as v0.1 if clearly labelled; empirical validation remains proposed work.

P8 is appended after the original seven-paper programme without changing the earlier ranking. Its definitions, explicitly labelled toy model and Embodiment-Only Delay Bound can be published now as a model working paper. THEOREM applies only to the mathematical implication under the stated assumptions.

Claims about actual values of $T_D$ , $T_E$ , $g_j$ , actuation overhang, safety effectiveness or risk require empirical work. No current numerical risk result exists. The five experiments are proposed designs; no execution, dataset, DOI, arXiv deposit, peer review or completed preregistration is claimed for P8.

Release with T69–T72 clearly labelled as later extensions, all O→F, and preserve the original T1–T68 corpus. The updated Atlas has 72 entries. Publication of the framework does not justify a headline claim that robotics restrictions buy a decade: that depends on the unchanged digital pathway and sufficient embodied delay.

Original release order v0.1, 14 September 2026.

Published source SHA-256: 1d7bd0d8362fe8931e5dfd2b470776f5735d4a888071a7a0d77c6abebc91ed99