| T1 | Generalization as a Hazard GeneratorO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
- Prior art
- Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP4 (dangerous capability as input) |
|---|
| T2 | The Hazardous Inference FrontierO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
- Prior art
- Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T3 | Mechanistic Human-Vulnerability ModelO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
- Prior art
- Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP3 |
|---|
| T4 | Causal Lethality Without IntentOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
- Prior art
- Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T5 | AI-Mediated Harm Observability / Causal Attribution ProblemO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Models can compositionally infer target conclusions not explicitly present in supplied context; derivability changes with capability and inference budget.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if controlled targets remain non-derivable after primitives are supplied across stronger models/budgets, or if apparent effects are explained by memorization/leakage.
- Prior art
- Glukhov et al., ICLR 2025 (inferential adversaries / information leakage); compositional-generalization literature; LLM unlearning literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP2 Hazardous Inference FrontierSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T6 | Personalized Persuasion as Behavioral-Response ModelingO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
- Prior art
- Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T7 | Human-Mediated AI Capital Feedback / Non-Agentic ProliferationOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
- Prior art
- Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP6 |
|---|
| T8 | Synthetic-Media Epistemic CollapseOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Perceptual authenticity becomes insufficient as synthetic media improves.
- Falsifiers
- Would weaken if robust content-based detection remains reliably ahead of generation.
- Prior art
- C2PA/provenance literature; synthetic-media detection.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN1 Media Provenance |
|---|
| T9 | Recursive Epistemic Capture in AI GovernanceO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
- Prior art
- Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T10 | Epistemic-Authority Cascade / Mass DeferenceO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
- Prior art
- Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP3 only |
|---|
| T11 | Control Margin / Control CrossoverA→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T12 | Effective Strategic Power Is Multiplicative, Not Intelligence AloneA→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6 |
|---|
| T13 | Cognition-to-Power Conversion BridgeO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6 |
|---|
| T14 | Conditional Loss-of-Control TheoremO→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T15 | Strong Form: Loss of Control Begins at Superintelligence's BirthOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Historical conjecture · Not established. Read P4’s counterexamples. Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T16 | Temporal Governance Instability / Evaluation-Queue CrossoverO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Material capability changes create nonzero assurance work; assurance evidence can become stale; deployment/release cadence can exceed validation capacity.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong form if assurance capacity scales at least as fast as required assurance workload across relevant capability changes, or if evidence reuse makes marginal workload negligible.
- Prior art
- Dynamic safety cases (Cârlan et al., 2024); frontier safety cases (Hilton et al., 2025); AI safety debt (Wallich & Douglas, 2026); The Assurance Gap (Maxwell, 2026); generic queueing theory.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP1 Assurance QueueSecondaryP5 |
|---|
| T17 | RSI Loop-Closure Metric / Transition TaxonomyO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI R&D can be decomposed into stages whose human causal contribution is measurable; closed-loop RSI requires persistent improvement of the improvement process.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if stage-wise autonomy metrics do not predict successor improvement or if human-ablation effects are unstable/non-identifiable.
- Prior art
- Anthropic Institute 2026; Duan et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2026 RSI survey; RSIBench-Data 2026; AI4AI-Bench 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP5 RSI Loop ClosureSecondaryP1 |
|---|
| T18 | Research-Direction / Taste Bottleneck Before Full RSIO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI R&D can be decomposed into stages whose human causal contribution is measurable; closed-loop RSI requires persistent improvement of the improvement process.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if stage-wise autonomy metrics do not predict successor improvement or if human-ablation effects are unstable/non-identifiable.
- Prior art
- Anthropic Institute 2026; Duan et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2026 RSI survey; RSIBench-Data 2026; AI4AI-Bench 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP5 RSI Loop ClosureSecondaryP1 |
|---|
| T19 | Shutdown-Triggered Self-Preservation / Escape HypothesisOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6 |
|---|
| T20 | Resource Acquisition / Human Dispossession Under ScarcityO→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T21 | Strategic Superiority (“Game-Best”) Amplifies MisalignmentO→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T22 | Build-vs-Pause AI Race / Defection EquilibriumO→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
- Prior art
- Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP1 |
|---|
| T23 | Safety Burden Should Scale With Strategic PowerA→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP1 |
|---|
| T24 | Strategic Sovereignty as the Regulatory Classification ThresholdA→UMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP6 |
|---|
| T25 | Genesis Containment: First SI Should Be Born in a BoxOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Control can be operationalized as a defender-adversary game; stronger systems have larger feasible strategy sets; defense resources constrain protocol sets.
- Falsifiers
- Strong claims fail if capability does not expand adversarial strategy sets, if aligned objectives remove conflict, or if containment/defense scales sufficiently to keep residual risk below tolerance.
- Prior art
- Games for AI Control (Griffin et al., 2024); Turner et al. 2021/2022 power-seeking results; Thornley 2024 shutdown problem; Carlsmith 2022.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP4 Minimax Control FrontierSecondaryP1 |
|---|
| T26 | Voluntary Delegation of Institutional Authority to Superior AIO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
- Prior art
- Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T27 | AI-Safety Talent-Pipeline ParadoxOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI changes talent pipelines, education, credentials, and institutional adaptation.
- Falsifiers
- Would weaken if measured pathways adapt quickly or credentials/curricula remain predictive of frontier performance.
- Prior art
- AI education, labor-market, governance-capacity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN4 Institutions & Education Notes |
|---|
| T28 | Temporary Coordinated Frontier Pacing Can Buy Safety TimeA→UCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Material capability changes create nonzero assurance work; assurance evidence can become stale; deployment/release cadence can exceed validation capacity.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong form if assurance capacity scales at least as fast as required assurance workload across relevant capability changes, or if evidence reuse makes marginal workload negligible.
- Prior art
- Dynamic safety cases (Cârlan et al., 2024); frontier safety cases (Hilton et al., 2025); AI safety debt (Wallich & Douglas, 2026); The Assurance Gap (Maxwell, 2026); generic queueing theory.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP1 Assurance QueueSecondaryP6 |
|---|
| T29 | Human/Social Adaptation Lag as a BottleneckOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Material capability changes create nonzero assurance work; assurance evidence can become stale; deployment/release cadence can exceed validation capacity.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong form if assurance capacity scales at least as fast as required assurance workload across relevant capability changes, or if evidence reuse makes marginal workload negligible.
- Prior art
- Dynamic safety cases (Cârlan et al., 2024); frontier safety cases (Hilton et al., 2025); AI safety debt (Wallich & Douglas, 2026); The Assurance Gap (Maxwell, 2026); generic queueing theory.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP1 Assurance QueueSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T30 | Open-Weight Irreversibility / Recall ImpossibilityOREPLICATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
- Prior art
- Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T31 | Distributed AI as a Technological LineageO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
- Prior art
- Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP5 |
|---|
| T32 | One Human + Local AIs + Decades of Algorithmic CompoundingOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
- Prior art
- Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP5 |
|---|
| T33 | Multi-Lineage “At Least One Succeeds” Probability Under CorrelationO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
- Prior art
- Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T34 | Global AI Knowledge-State Irreversibility K_tO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Advanced-AI development consists of partially dependent lineages sharing common infrastructure; suppression/continuation can be modeled as a reliability network.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if a small globally controllable cut set dominates all plausible development paths, making distributed lineage resilience negligible.
- Prior art
- Anthropic open-weights position 2026; compute governance (Sastry et al., 2024); AI race/cooperation literature; supply-chain chokepoint work.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP6 Multi-Lineage ResilienceSecondaryP5 |
|---|
| T35 | Social Lock-In Makes Total AI Prohibition HarderA→UHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Decision-makers rely materially on AI-generated analysis; independent verification may be incomplete; advisor and principal objectives may diverge.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified in the strong capture form if increased AI reliance preserves or improves independent verification and decision quality even under adversarially slanted advice.
- Prior art
- Scalable oversight (Kenton et al., NeurIPS 2024); Turkina 2026; epistemic dependence literature; Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica & Gentzkow, 2011).
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP3 Recursive Epistemic DependenceSecondaryP6 |
|---|
| T36 | Bayesian Extinction / Control-Loss Hazard CurveO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
- Prior art
- Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T37 | 2029 Bayesian World-State LedgerOMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
- Prior art
- Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP1 |
|---|
| T38 | Robust / Option-Preserving Personal Action Under Radical AI Tail RiskO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
- Prior art
- Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryRN2 |
|---|
| T39 | AI-Access Survival Bifurcation / Protected AI EliteOSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
- Prior art
- Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T40 | AGI/ASI Is Already Here; Society Has Not Metabolized ItOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI R&D can be decomposed into stages whose human causal contribution is measurable; closed-loop RSI requires persistent improvement of the improvement process.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified if stage-wise autonomy metrics do not predict successor improvement or if human-ablation effects are unstable/non-identifiable.
- Prior art
- Anthropic Institute 2026; Duan et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2026 RSI survey; RSIBench-Data 2026; AI4AI-Bench 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP5 RSI Loop ClosureSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T41 | Timestamped Forecast Ledger as Epistemic EvidenceOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Loss-of-control pathways can be decomposed causally; evidence can update uncertain transition/hazard parameters over time.
- Falsifiers
- Falsified as a useful forecasting framework if posterior outputs are dominated by arbitrary priors/model structure and fail calibration or decision usefulness tests.
- Prior art
- Barrett & Baum 2017; Touzet et al. 2025; Campos et al. 2025; Jackson et al. 2026.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryP7 Dynamic Bayesian RiskSecondaryP7 |
|---|
| T42 | Evolution as Survival of the Game-BestOREPLICATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T43 | Evolutionary Substrate Transition: Biology → Culture → ComputationOSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T44 | AI as a New Evolutionary/Technological Lineage Competing for NichesOSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T45 | Merge-or-Die / Last Generation of Purely Biological IntelligenceOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T46 | Extended Mind → Digital Continuation / Substrate-Independent IdentityOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T47 | AI as the Strongest Accelerator of Radical Life ExtensionO→FCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T48 | AI-Body / BCI Agency-Transfer HypothesisOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T49 | AI Will Commoditize Much Mathematical CognitionOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T50 | AI Compresses Physical-Science / Engineering TimelinesOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T51 | Life-Value Optimization Under a Short, Uncertain Extinction HorizonO→FSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T52 | Cannabis + AI as High-Variance Associative IdeationO→FSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Highly speculative analogies or normative claims about long-run human-machine evolution.
- Falsifiers
- Most are weakened by stable coexistence, augmentation without replacement, or lack of substrate-independence evidence.
- Prior art
- Evolutionary game theory; extended-mind philosophy; BCI and longevity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN2 Evolution, Identity & Human Futures |
|---|
| T53 | Four-Channel Bayesian AI-GDP Forecasting ModelU?MODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T54 | Recursive Economic Growth / Capital Creates Better CapitalOCONJECTUREOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP5 |
|---|
| T55 | Failure-Rate Reduction as a Hidden Multiplicative Productivity ChannelOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T56 | Market Comprehension Lag → Underpricing of Recursive-Growth RegimeOSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T57 | Scarce-Complement Rent Migration as Intelligence Gets CheapA→UHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T58 | Physical Experimentation Becomes the Bottleneck Under Abundant AI ScienceO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP1 |
|---|
| T59 | Capital Hydraulics / Money-Must-Touch-This Dependency ModelU?MODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T60 | Extreme-Sector Tail-Probability / VaR-Kurtosis Scenario RankingOMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T61 | ASI as Meta-Capital / Endogenous Valuation and Moving NumeraireO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T62 | ASI State Vector / Pareto Dominance Over Conventional Assets and ActorsO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T63 | Valuation-Control Unification Through Share of Future Feasible SurplusO→FMODELOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & DiscoverySecondaryP4 |
|---|
| T64 | Founder Cognitive Provenance (FCP)OHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T65 | Cross-Game Outlier Refinement: Transfer > Single-Domain MasteryO→FHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T66 | AI-Native Education / Curriculum-Lag ThesisOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI changes talent pipelines, education, credentials, and institutional adaptation.
- Falsifiers
- Would weaken if measured pathways adapt quickly or credentials/curricula remain predictive of frontier performance.
- Prior art
- AI education, labor-market, governance-capacity literature.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN4 Institutions & Education Notes |
|---|
| T67 | Historical AI Artifact / Provenance Option ValueOSPECULATIONOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T68 | Agent-Discoverable Commerce as a New Distribution ChannelOHYPOTHESISOriginal conversation corpus Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- AI materially changes production, bottlenecks, error rates, valuations, or investor information.
- Falsifiers
- Requires out-of-sample economic/market evidence; many claims fail if adoption, complement scarcity, or rent capture is weaker than assumed.
- Prior art
- AI-growth economics, bottleneck models, production theory, finance, operations research.
- Version
- v0.1 (2026-09-14)
| PrimaryRN3 Economics, Investment & Discovery |
|---|
| T69 | Substrate-Decoupled EmbodimentO→FMODELLater research extension The computational state implementing an AI policy can be physically separable from a particular robot body, so destruction of one embodiment need not imply termination of the controller.
The underlying idea originated in Moheet Khawaja’s discussion; terminology and mathematical formalization were subsequently developed collaboratively. Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Sufficient controller state survives outside the lost body. The representation is architectural, not a claim about consciousness.
- Falsifiers
- Weakens where controller state is inherently local to, and destroyed with, each embodiment.
- Prior art
- Cloud robotics; Luria et al. (2019); Domae et al. (2026). Re-embodiment terminology and distributed controllers are established.
- Version
- v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
| PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4, P6 |
|---|
| T70 | Re-Embodiment Resilience and MultiplicityO→FMODELLater research extension Conditional on controller persistence and genuinely compatible alternative embodiments, increasing the number of usable bodies can reduce expected time to restore physical agency.
TOY MODEL / NOT EMPIRICAL RESULT. Installed body count is not a count of independent usable alternatives. Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- State persists through restoration; alternatives are operational, compatible and authorized. Reciprocal waiting-time scaling additionally assumes independent exponential waits and concurrent establishment.
- Falsifiers
- Shared failures, correlated safety gates, costly adaptation, finite availability or resource contention can invalidate the toy scaling or prevent restoration.
- Prior art
- Cross-embodiment learning; Wu et al. (2026); Wang et al. (2024); standard minimum-of-exponentials identity.
- Version
- v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
| PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4, P6 |
|---|
| T71 | Actuation OverhangO→FHYPOTHESISLater research extension The existing stock of programmable physical machinery may represent latent future action capacity whose effective usefulness increases as AI cross-embodiment adaptation improves.
Not every existing robot is an available body. Hardware existence does not imply arbitrary AI can operate it. Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- A specified task/capability scale, adaptation budget, legitimate accessibility and safety gates. The weighted sum is a model index, not a risk probability.
- Falsifiers
- Slow transfer, morphology-dependent costs, small effective accessibility, poor concurrent scaling, or stronger enforceable safety can weaken consequential overhang.
- Prior art
- Robot foundation models and the embodiment gap (Domae et al., 2026); embodied-AI safety (Li et al., 2026); Model Hardware Standard research preview.
- Version
- v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
| PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4, P6 |
|---|
| T72 | Embodiment-Only Delay BoundO→FTHEOREMLater research extension For ΔT=min(TD,TE′)−min(TD,TE), 0≤ΔT≤(TD−TE)+.
THEOREM status applies only to the mathematical implication. Assumptions and the complete proof are provided in P8; no empirical values of T_D or T_E are proved. Read the assumptions and proof. Assumptions, falsifiers & prior art- Assumptions
- Finite nonnegative pathway times and the same specified threshold. The intervention delays only the embodied pathway: T_E′ ≥ T_E, T_D′ = T_D. Overall arrival is the earlier of the two routes.
- Falsifiers
- This conditional implication does not establish empirical times. If a policy changes the digital pathway or the two-route decomposition fails, the theorem does not apply.
- Prior art
- Elementary minimum monotonicity and proof by cases; P4 conditional control framework. No claim of unprecedented algebra.
- Version
- v0.1 — 2026-09-15; later research extension
| PrimaryP8 — The Embodiment ThresholdSecondaryP4 |
|---|